As of 2025-12-11, Today’s GI regime is Growth Acceleration × Inflation Reacceleration.
金融環境は逼迫しており、利回り曲線は平坦化しており、信用状況はスプレッドの縮小を示しています。.
- 成長加速×インフレ再加速体制は、歴史的に見て、物価圧力の上昇を伴う活発な経済活動を示唆する傾向があります。.
- Financial conditions remain tight, with a slight movement towards tighter conditions compared to last week.
- The yield curve is flat, with a slight steepening observed from the previous week.
- Credit conditions show spread compression, with a z-score indicating conditions are significantly below the long-run average.
- 最も注目すべき変化は利回り曲線のわずかな急勾配化であり、市場の期待にわずかな変化があることを示唆している。.
成長 × インフレ（GI）
The current regime of Growth Acceleration × Inflation Reacceleration suggests a period where economic growth is picking up alongside rising inflationary pressures. The year-over-year growth in industrial production is at 1.75%, with a three-month change indicating further acceleration. Inflation, as measured by the CPI, is at 3.03% year-over-year, with a slight increase over the past three months. This regime remains unchanged from the previous week, indicating a consistent economic environment.
財務状況（F）
Financial conditions are currently tight, which typically implies higher borrowing costs and potentially restrictive access to capital. The federal funds rate is at 4.09%, and the two-year yield is at 3.52%, both contributing to the tight conditions. Compared to last week, the financial conditions score has moved slightly tighter, suggesting a marginal increase in financial market constraints.
利回り曲線（R）
The yield curve is flat, with a spread of 0.32 percentage points between the 10-year and 3-month yields. This flatness often reflects uncertainty about future economic growth and inflation. Compared to last week, the curve has steepened slightly, moving from a spread of 0.29 percentage points. This change may indicate a slight shift in market expectations regarding future interest rates or economic conditions.
クレジット（C）
Credit conditions are characterized by spread compression, with a high-yield spread of 2.88%. The z-score of -1.06 suggests that current spreads are significantly tighter than the long-run average, placing them in the 5th percentile of the past decade. Compared to last week, there is little change, indicating stable credit conditions with continued tight spreads.
不確実性と今後の検証方法
This report reflects conditional tendencies based on current data, not forecasts. Key metrics to track include the GI label and its core values, the financial-conditions score, the yield-curve spread, and the high-yield spread level and percentile. Monitoring these indicators over the coming months will provide insights into potential shifts in economic conditions. As always, this analysis is informational and should not be construed as investment advice.
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