As of 2025-12-12, Today’s GI regime is Growth Acceleration × Inflation Reacceleration.
金融環境は逼迫しており、利回り曲線は平坦化しており、信用状況はスプレッドの縮小を示しています。.
- 成長加速×インフレ再加速体制は、歴史的に見て、物価圧力の上昇を伴う活発な経済活動を示唆する傾向があります。.
- Financial conditions remain tight, with a slight movement towards tighter conditions compared to last week.
- The yield curve is flat, with a slight steepening observed from the previous week.
- Credit conditions show spread compression, with a high-yield spread in the lower 6th percentile, indicating relatively favorable credit conditions.
- The most notable shift is the slight steepening of the yield curve, suggesting a change in market expectations.
成長 × インフレ（GI）
現在の「成長加速」×「インフレ再加速」という構図は、インフレ圧力の高まりとともに経済成長が加速している時期を示唆しています。鉱工業生産の前年比伸び率は1.75%で、3ヶ月前の伸び率は更なる加速を示しています。消費者物価指数（CPI）で測られたインフレ率は前年比3.03%で、過去3ヶ月間でわずかに上昇しました。この構図は前週から変化がなく、経済環境が安定していることを示しています。.
財務状況（F）
Financial conditions are currently labeled as tight, which suggests that borrowing costs and financial market conditions are more restrictive compared to historical norms over the past decade. The federal funds rate is at 4.09%, and the two-year yield is at 3.52%. Compared to last week, the financial conditions score has moved slightly tighter, reflecting a marginal increase in the restrictiveness of financial conditions.
利回り曲線（R）
The yield curve is currently flat, with a spread of 0.37 percentage points between the 10-year and 3-month yields. This flatness suggests a market expectation of stable future interest rates. Compared to last week, the yield curve has steepened slightly, moving from a spread of 0.32 percentage points. This change may reflect shifting market expectations regarding future economic growth and inflation, although such interpretations should be made cautiously.
クレジット（C）
Credit conditions are characterized by spread compression, with the high-yield spread at 2.91%. The z-score of -1.03 indicates that the spread is below the long-run average, and the percentile rank of approximately 6% places it in the lower range of the past decade. Compared to last week, there has been further compression, as indicated by a lower z-score and a higher percentile rank, suggesting improved credit conditions.
不確実性と今後の検証方法
This report outlines conditional tendencies rather than forecasts. Key metrics to track include the GI label and its core values, the financial-conditions score, the yield-curve spread, and the high-yield spread level and percentile. Monitoring these indicators over the coming months will provide insights into potential shifts in economic conditions. Readers should note that this analysis does not constitute investment advice, and they should consider their own circumstances when making financial decisions.
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