As of 2025-12-17, Today’s GI regime is Growth Acceleration × Inflation Reacceleration.
金融環境は逼迫しており、利回り曲線は平坦化しており、信用状況はスプレッドの縮小を示しています。.
- 成長加速×インフレ再加速体制は、歴史的に見て、物価圧力の上昇を伴う活発な経済活動を示唆する傾向があります。.
- Financial conditions remain tight, with a slight movement towards looser conditions compared to last week.
- The yield curve is flat, with a slight steepening observed since the last report.
- Credit conditions show spread compression, with a z-score indicating a position below the long-run mean and a low percentile.
- The most notable shift is the slight steepening of the yield curve, which may suggest changing market expectations.
成長 × インフレ（GI）
The current regime of Growth Acceleration × Inflation Reacceleration suggests a period where economic growth is picking up alongside increasing inflationary pressures. The year-over-year growth in industrial production stands at 1.75%, with a three-month change indicating further acceleration. Inflation, as measured by the CPI, is at 3.03% year-over-year, with a slight increase over the past three months. This regime remains unchanged from the previous snapshot, indicating a consistent economic environment.
財務状況（F）
Financial conditions are currently labeled as tight, reflecting a relatively restrictive environment compared to historical norms over the past decade. The federal funds rate is at 4.09%, with the two-year yield at 3.49%. Compared to the past snapshot, the financial conditions score has moved slightly looser, suggesting a marginal easing in the tightness of conditions. This shift, however, remains within the tight category, indicating continued vigilance in financial markets.
利回り曲線（R）
The yield curve is currently flat, with a spread of 0.34 percentage points between the 10-year and 3-month yields. This flatness suggests a balance between short-term and long-term interest rate expectations. Compared to the past, the curve has steepened slightly, moving from a spread of 0.31 percentage points. This change may reflect evolving market perceptions of future growth and inflation, although it remains within a flat configuration.
クレジット（C）
Credit conditions are characterized by spread compression, with the high-yield spread at 2.99%. The z-score of -0.96 indicates that spreads are tighter than the long-run average, and the percentile of 7.69% places current conditions near the lower end of the historical range. Compared to the past, there has been further compression, as indicated by a lower z-score and percentile. This suggests a continued environment of relatively low credit risk premiums.
不確実性と今後の検証方法
This report outlines conditional tendencies based on current data, not forecasts. Key metrics to track include the GI label and its core values, the financial-conditions score, the yield-curve spread, and the high-yield spread level and percentile. Monitoring these indicators over the coming months will provide insights into potential shifts in economic and financial conditions. Readers should remain aware that this analysis does not constitute investment advice, and responsibility for investment decisions rests with the individual.
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